Not Seasonally Adjusted [exclusive] 〈2026〉

If seasonally adjusted data is better for spotting trends, why does NSA data still exist? There are several critical reasons why analysts prefer the raw numbers.

By dawn, she reached a truck stop with a payphone. She called the one person who’d understand: the old archivist in the Salt Lake City Federal Reserve basement. He still kept not-seasonally-adjusted records on microfiche. not seasonally adjusted

For instance, looking at NSA employment data, you will see a massive dip every single January when holiday temporary workers are let go. An investor looking only at NSA data might panic every January, mistaking a seasonal blip for an economic crash. This is why media outlets and policymakers rely on Seasonally Adjusted data for short-term policy decisions and headlines—it smooths out the noise to reveal the signal. If seasonally adjusted data is better for spotting

Three days later, the Bureau’s website crashed under the weight of 27 million downloads. Not because of a seasonal pattern. Not because of a model. But because people finally saw the world as it was—spiky, weird, and gloriously unadjusted. She called the one person who’d understand: the

The motel manager, a woman named Delia, slid a crumpled memo across the counter. “They left these in Room 12.”